Since creation ex nihilo is prima facie metaphysically impossible, the posterior probability of the god of theism creating a fine-tuned universe ex nihilo is zero. But if so, then the fine-tuning of the universe is best explained in terms of something that involved the use of pre-existing matter-energy (or whatever matter-energy is ultimately made of). The simplest, most conservative type of explanation of fine-tuning is therefore some sort of natural cause.
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